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PD IEC/TR 63039:2016 Probabilistic risk analysis of technological systems. Estimation of final event rate at a given initial state, 2016
- 30335827-VOR.pdf [Go to Page]
- CONTENTS
- FOREWORD
- INTRODUCTION
- 1 Scope
- 2 Normative references
- 3 Terms, definitions and abbreviated terms [Go to Page]
- 3.1 Terms and definitions
- 3.2 Abbreviated terms
- 4 Difference between frequency and rate of final event
- 5 Final event frequency and final event rate at a given initial state [Go to Page]
- 5.1 General
- 5.2 Classification of final events
- 5.3 Final event frequency in a steady state
- 5.4 Final event rate at a given initial state and at a recognised state
- 5.5 Relationship between final event rate and frequency at a given initial state
- 6 Procedure for probabilistic risk analysis and flow to reach risk profile
- 7 Techniques for quantitative analysis of the occurrence of a final event [Go to Page]
- 7.1 Graphical symbols for three types of final events [Go to Page]
- 7.1.1 General
- 7.1.2 Repeatable final eventTable 3
- 7.1.3 Unrepeatable final event resulting in a renewable final state
- 7.1.4 Unrepeatable final event resulting in an unrenewable final state
- 7.2 Analytical example of an unrepeatable final event [Go to Page]
- 7.2.1 General
- 7.2.2 Average final event frequency
- 7.2.3 Final event rate at a given initial state
- 8 Final event rate at a recognised state and recognised group state [Go to Page]
- 8.1 General
- 8.2 Example of recognised (group) states
- 9 Analysis of multiple protection layers [Go to Page]
- 9.1 General
- 9.2 Frequency and rate for repeatable events [Go to Page]
- 9.2.1 General
- 9.2.2 Independent of event sequence
- 9.2.3 Depending on event sequence
- 9.3 Final protection layer arranged in a 1-out-of-1 architecture system [Go to Page]
- 9.3.1 General
- 9.3.2 Final event rate at initial state (0, 0) for unrepeatable final event
- 9.3.3 Final event rate at recognised state (x, y)
- 9.3.4 Final event rate at a recognised group state
- 9.4 Final protection layer arranged in a 1-out-of-2 architecture system [Go to Page]
- 9.4.1 General
- 9.4.2 Independent failure parts of the 1-out-of-2 architecture system
- 9.4.3 Fault tree for independent undetected and detected failures
- 9.4.4 Final event rate at a given initial state owing to independent failures
- 9.4.5 Recognised states at each part
- 9.4.6 Recognised (group) states and final states for the overall system
- 9.5 Common cause failures between protection layers and complexity of a system
- 9.6 Summary and remarks
- Annex A (informative) Risk owing to fault recognised only by demand [Go to Page]
- A.1 Demand, detection and failure logic
- A.2 Final event rate at a given initial state
- A.3 Comparison between new and conventional analyses
- A.4 Further development
- A.5 Summary and remarks
- Annex B (informative) Application to functional safety [Go to Page]
- B.1 Risk-based target failure measures in functional safety
- B.2 Safe/dangerous system states and failures
- B.3 Complexity of safety-related systems
- B.4 Comparison between conventional and new analyses
- B.5 Splitting up mode of operation
- B.6 Tolerable hazardous/harmful event rate and residual risk
- B.7 Procedure for determining the safety integrity level (SIL) of an item
- B.8 Summary and remarks
- Bibliography
- Figures [Go to Page]
- Figure 1 – Antecedent state, final event, final state and renewal event
- Figure 2 – Time to final event (TTFE) and time to renewal event (TTRE)
- Figure 3 – State transition models with various final states
- Figure 4 – Procedure for analysis of repeatable/unrepeatable final events
- Figure 5 – FT for an unrepeatable final event resulting in an unrenewable final state
- Figure 6 – State transition model resulting in an unrenewable final state
- Figure 7 – FT for an unrepeatable final event resulting in a renewable final state
- Figure 8 – State transitions resulting in a renewable final state
- Figure 9 – FT for unintended inflation of an airbag due to failure of control
- Figure 10 – State transition model of unintended inflation of an airbag
- Figure 11 – Event tree of a demand source, int. PL and FPL for a risk
- Figure 12 – Failure of int. PL independent of event sequence
- Figure 13 – FT for failure of int. PL through sequential failure logic
- Figure 14 – FT for an unrepeatable final event at initial state (0,0)
- Figure 15 – State transition model for an unrepeatable final event at initial state (0,0)
- Figure 16 – FT for an unrepeatable final event for recognised state (0,1)
- Figure 17 – State transition model for recognised state (0,1)
- Figure 18 – FT for an unrepeatable final event for recognised group state G1
- Figure 19 – State transition model for recognised group state G1
- Figure 20 – RBD of FPL arranged in a 1-out-of-2 architecture system
- Figure 21 – RBD of the independent parts of Ch 1 and Ch 2
- Figure 22 – RBD equivalent to that in Figure 21
- Figure 23 – FT for UD failure of Ch 1, D failure of Ch 2 and demand
- Figure 24 – State transitions due to UD failure of Ch 1, D failure of Ch 2 and demand
- Figure A.1 – Reliability bock diagram with independent and common cause failures
- Figure A.2 – Fault tree of unrepeatable final event due to DU failures
- Figure A.3 – State transition model for unrepeatable final event caused by DU failures
- Figure A.4 – Comparison between analyses of r(λM) and ϖ
- Figure B.1 – Comparison between conventional and new analyses
- Tables [Go to Page]
- Table 1 – Events and associated risks
- Table 2 – Symbols newly introduced for event tree and fault tree analyses
- Table 3 – Symbols and graphical representation for a repeatable (final) event
- Table 4 – Symbols and graphical representation for a renewable final state
- Table 5 – Symbols and graphical representation for an unrenewable final state
- Table 6 – Symbols and graphical representation for the FER at recognised state 3
- Table 7 – Symbols and graphical representation for FER at recognised group state G
- Table B.1 – Relationship between failure modes, hazards, and safe/dangerous failures
- Table B.2 – Safety integrity levels (SILs) in IEC 61508 (all parts) [Go to Page]